June 21, 2024– Despite the Edmonton Oilers winning three consecutive games, historical trends suggest that the Florida Panthers are better positioned heading into Game 7.
When the Panthers held off the Oilers in Game 3, it seemed a sweep was inevitable, potentially the first in 26 years. However, the Oilers turned the series around, avoiding elimination with an 8-1 victory in Game 4, a 5-3 win in Game 5, and a 5-1 win in Game 6, thus forcing a decisive Game 7—the first in five years for the Stanley Cup Final.
Historically, forcing a Game 7 after trailing 3-0 has occurred only three times in the Stanley Cup Final and ten times in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Though Edmonton has some positive precedent, the broader historical context favors Florida. Teams in Edmonton’s position are 4-5 in these scenarios. Including the MLB and NBA, teams down 3-0 have won Game 7 only 5 out of 15 times.
Here’s a look back at the outcomes of such Game 7s:
Teams That Won Game 7
NHL:
– 1942 Stanley Cup Final:** Toronto Maple Leafs defeated Detroit Red Wings, 3-1. Toronto rallied from a 1-0 deficit in Game 7 with third-period goals, completing a dramatic comeback.
– **1975 Stanley Cup Quarterfinals:** New York Islanders defeated Pittsburgh Penguins, 1-0. Ed Westfall scored the lone goal late in the third period, sealing the Islanders’ comeback.
– 2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals:** Philadelphia Flyers defeated Boston Bruins, 4-3. The Flyers overcame a 3-0 deficit in Game 7, with Simon Gagné’s power play goal being decisive.
– **2014 Western Conference First Round:** Los Angeles Kings defeated San Jose Sharks, 5-1. After falling behind 3-0 in the series, the Kings dominated Game 7 to complete their comeback.
MLB:**
– 2004 ALCS:Boston Red Sox defeated New York Yankees, 10-3. Key home runs and solid pitching helped the Red Sox overturn a 3-0 series deficit in dramatic fashion.
Teams That Lost Game 7
NHL:
– 1939 Stanley Cup Semifinals:** Boston Bruins defeated New York Rangers, 2-1 (triple overtime). Mel Hill’s goal in triple overtime ended a hard-fought series.
– 1945 Stanley Cup Final: Toronto Maple Leafs defeated Detroit Red Wings, 2-1. Babe Pratt’s third-period goal secured the Maple Leafs’ victory after a tight series.
– 1975 Stanley Cup Semifinals: Philadelphia Flyers defeated New York Islanders, 4-1. The Islanders’ second comeback attempt fell short as the Flyers controlled Game 7.
– **2011 Western Conference Quarterfinals:** Vancouver Canucks defeated Chicago Blackhawks, 2-1. Alexandre Burrows’ overtime goal helped Vancouver avoid a complete collapse.
– 2011 Western Conference Semifinals:San Jose Sharks defeated Detroit Red Wings. The Sharks held off a determined Red Wings comeback in a tense Game 7.
NBA:
– 1951 NBA Finals: Rochester Royals defeated New York Knicks, 79-75. The Royals maintained an early lead to win their only championship to date.
– 1994 Western Conference Semifinals:Utah Jazz defeated Denver Nuggets, 91-81. The Jazz controlled Game 7 to fend off the Nuggets’ comeback.
– 2003 Western Conference First Round:Dallas Mavericks defeated Portland Trail Blazers, 107-95. A close game until the final quarter, the Mavericks pulled away late.
– 2023 Eastern Conference Finals:Miami Heat defeated Boston Celtics, 103-84. Despite a dramatic Game 6 win, the Celtics fell short in Game 7 against a dominant Heat performance.
MLB:
– Game 7 After 3-0: What History Tells Us About the Oilers’ and Panthers’ Chances ALCS:Tampa Bay Rays defeated Houston Astros, 4-2. Strong pitching and timely hitting allowed the Rays to hold off the Astros’ rally in Game 7.
As the Oilers prepare for Game 7, historical trends offer a mixed outlook. While momentum might seem to favor the team coming from behind, past outcomes suggest the Panthers have a slight edge.
