Sean Kelly on Tadej Pogacar: Why Roubaix Triumph Could Come Before Milano-Sanremo Victory
Tadej Pogacar, the Slovenian cycling sensation who has already carved his name into the history books with two Tour de France victories and an impressive array of classics performances, continues to be a subject of fascination and debate within the cycling world. Renowned former professional cyclist Sean Kelly recently weighed in on Pogacar’s prospects in the prestigious one-day classics, making a bold statement: he sees Pogacar as more likely to win Paris-Roubaix before taking Milano-Sanremo.
At first glance, this claim might seem counterintuitive. Milano-Sanremo, with its relatively long but less brutal parcours, is often seen as a race more suited to all-rounders and climbers, categories into which Pogacar fits perfectly. On the other hand, Paris-Roubaix, nicknamed the “Hell of the North,” is a grueling test of power, endurance, and technical skill over cobblestones—terrain traditionally dominated by heavier, more robust riders.
So, what makes Sean Kelly, himself a two-time Paris-Roubaix winner and one of cycling’s greatest classics riders, suggest that Pogacar might conquer Roubaix before Milano-Sanremo? Let’s break it down.
A Closer Look at Pogacar’s Strengths
Pogacar has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to excel in a wide variety of races, from grand tours to hilly one-day classics like Il Lombardia, which he has already won twice. His explosive climbing, tactical acumen, and fearlessness on descents make him a formidable force in almost any race he enters.
Yet, his performance in last year’s Tour of Flanders—a race that features cobblestones and short, punchy climbs—showcased a new dimension to his skill set. Despite competing against cobblestone specialists like Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert, Pogacar was not only able to hang with the best but also dictated the race at times. Though he narrowly missed victory, it was clear he had the power and technical ability to thrive on the cobbles.
This performance is perhaps why Kelly believes Pogacar is more suited to a race like Paris-Roubaix than most would assume. While the cobblestones of Roubaix are longer and more punishing than those in Flanders, Pogacar’s power output, ability to sustain high intensity, and keen bike-handling skills could see him succeed on the brutal terrain.
The Challenge of Milano-Sanremo
Milano-Sanremo, while often labeled as a sprinter’s classic, is deceptively difficult to win. The race’s 294 kilometers make it the longest one-day race in professional cycling, and the combination of fatigue and the explosiveness required on the final climbs—the Cipressa and the Poggio—creates a unique challenge.
Pogacar has the climbing prowess to attack on the Poggio and the descending skill to hold off the chasing pack on the final run into Sanremo. However, the race has a long history of favoring opportunists and sprinters who can manage their energy carefully throughout the day and deliver a decisive move at just the right moment. Riders like Jasper Stuyven and Matej Mohorič, who have recently won Milano-Sanremo, are not necessarily the strongest climbers but excel in exploiting the race’s tactical nature.
For Pogacar, mastering the art of patience and timing required for Milano-Sanremo could be more challenging than the sheer physical brutality of Paris-Roubaix. Sean Kelly, who won Milano-Sanremo in 1986, likely understands this better than most.
Why Roubaix Before Sanremo?
Kelly’s perspective likely hinges on Pogacar’s demonstrated willingness to embrace physical challenges head-on. While Roubaix requires extraordinary physical resilience and the ability to thrive in chaos, it doesn’t demand the same level of split-second tactical decision-making that Milano-Sanremo does. Pogacar has shown he can muscle through hard races and dominate with sheer power, as seen in his Tour de France wins and his triumphs in other demanding one-day races.
Moreover, the unpredictability of Milano-Sanremo—where positioning, team strategy, and even luck play a significant role—can make it a more elusive prize for a rider like Pogacar, who thrives on aggression and attacking rather than waiting for a sprint. In contrast, Roubaix rewards riders who can take control of their destiny through strength and determination.
Historical Context
If Pogacar were to win Paris-Roubaix, he would join an elite group of riders capable of excelling across both grand tours and the toughest one-day classics. Historically, only a handful of riders—like Eddy Merckx and Bernard Hinault—have managed to win both the Tour de France and Paris-Roubaix, highlighting the magnitude of such an achievement.
Kelly’s prediction adds an intriguing layer to Pogacar’s career narrative. Should he conquer the cobblestones of Roubaix before Milano-Sanremo, it would cement his reputation as one of the most versatile riders of all time.
A Question of Timing
For Pogacar, the decision to target specific classics will depend on his broader race calendar. Balancing grand tours with one-day classics is no easy task, especially for a rider aiming to peak multiple times in a season. Focusing on Paris-Roubaix might require sacrifices elsewhere, particularly in the Tour de France or other high-priority races.
However, Pogacar’s ambition and willingness to take on new challenges suggest that he is more than capable of adapting. If and when he decides to focus on Paris-Roubaix, his performance will likely be as electrifying as his rides in Flanders and Lombardia.
Conclusion
Sean Kelly’s assertion that Tadej Pogacar could win Paris-Roubaix before Milano-Sanremo is not as far-fetched as it may initially seem. While Milano-Sanremo’s parcours appears more tailored to Pogacar’s strengths on paper, the unique demands of the race and its unpredictable nature could make it a tougher nut to crack. In contrast, Paris-Roubaix, though brutal and punishing, aligns with Pogacar’s proven ability to thrive in physically demanding scenarios.
Whether Pogacar eventually wins one—or both—of these iconic races remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: his continuing evolution as a cyclist is reshaping what’s possible in modern professional cycling. And, as Sean Kelly suggests, we may just see Pogacar hoist the cobblestone trophy of Roubaix before he raises his arms on the Via Roma in Sanremo.
